Horizon
FII · intelligence
Sovereign default · Moderate
Sovereign default · Moderate · 36 months · manual
appliedAll scenarios
Simulated result — impacts are derived from the assumptions listed below, not observed outcomes.
AUM impact
$-8.25T
104 institutions
Avg GDP delta
-2.4%
31 locations
Avg FX delta
-8.8%
Most impacted
-24.9%
Permodalan Nasional Berhad
31 locations · bubble = scale · colour = scenario impact
Institution impacts
ranked by AUM delta
| # | Institution | Driver | Baseline | Scenario | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Permodalan Nasional Berhad Kuala Lumpur | Asset-class exposure | $70.0B | $52.5B | ▼24.9% |
| 2 | Khazanah Nasional Kuala Lumpur | Asset-class exposure | $38.0B | $29.1B | ▼23.5% |
| 3 | Bosera Asset Management Shenzhen | Asset-class exposure | $180.0B | $138.9B | ▼22.8% |
| 4 | Indonesia Investment Authority Jakarta | Asset-class exposure | $12.0B | $9.4B | ▼21.3% |
| 5 | CIMB Group Kuala Lumpur | Asset-class exposure | $48.0B | $37.9B | ▼21.2% |
| 6 | SBI Funds Management Mumbai | Asset-class exposure | $130.0B | $102.9B | ▼20.9% |
| 7 | Maybank Kuala Lumpur | Asset-class exposure | $72.0B | $57.1B | ▼20.7% |
| 8 | Uzbekistan Fund for Reconstruction Tashkent | Asset-class exposure | $25.0B | $19.9B | ▼20.4% |
| 9 | Fisher Funds Auckland | Asset-class exposure | $15.0B | $12.0B | ▼20.1% |
| 10 | Life Insurance Corporation of India Mumbai | Asset-class exposure | $560.0B | $447.6B | ▼20.1% |
| 11 | Kasikorn Asset Management Bangkok | Asset-class exposure | $45.0B | $36.1B | ▼19.8% |
| 12 | Eastspring Investments Singapore | Asset-class exposure | $250.0B | $200.6B | ▼19.8% |
| 13 | Fullerton Fund Management Singapore | Asset-class exposure | $55.0B | $44.2B | ▼19.6% |
| 14 | Ping An Insurance Shenzhen | Asset-class exposure | $560.0B | $451.3B | ▼19.4% |
| 15 | CSOP Asset Management Hong Kong | Asset-class exposure | $60.0B | $48.4B | ▼19.4% |
| 16 | BPI Asset Management Manila | Asset-class exposure | $10.0B | $8.1B | ▼19.3% |
| 17 | Fubon Asset Management Taipei | Asset-class exposure | $40.0B | $32.3B | ▼19.3% |
| 18 | Citadel New York | Asset-class exposure | $65.0B | $52.5B | ▼19.2% |
| 19 | ICICI Prudential AMC Mumbai | Asset-class exposure | $110.0B | $89.0B | ▼19.1% |
| 20 | AustralianSuper Sydney | Asset-class exposure | $220.0B | $178.3B | ▼19.0% |
| 21 | Nippon Life Insurance Tokyo | Asset-class exposure | $700.0B | $567.5B | ▼18.9% |
| 22 | Temasek Holdings Singapore | Asset-class exposure | $290.0B | $235.2B | ▼18.9% |
| 23 | Daiwa Securities Tokyo | Asset-class exposure | $240.0B | $194.9B | ▼18.8% |
| 24 | BB DTVM Sao Paulo | Asset-class exposure | $300.0B | $243.8B | ▼18.7% |
| 25 | Uzsanoatqurilishbank Tashkent | Asset-class exposure | $6.0B | $4.9B | ▼18.7% |
| 26 | Mirae Asset Global Investments Seoul | Asset-class exposure | $200.0B | $163.0B | ▼18.5% |
| 27 | Partners Group Zurich | Asset-class exposure | $150.0B | $122.4B | ▼18.4% |
| 28 | GIC Private Limited Singapore | Asset-class exposure | $800.0B | $654.4B | ▼18.2% |
| 29 | Macquarie Asset Management Sydney | Asset-class exposure | $590.0B | $482.8B | ▼18.2% |
| 30 | Samruk-Kazyna Astana | Asset-class exposure | $70.0B | $57.4B | ▼18.1% |
| 31 | Nomura Asset Management Tokyo | Asset-class exposure | $560.0B | $458.9B | ▼18.1% |
| 32 | Cathay Life Insurance Taipei | Asset-class exposure | $240.0B | $196.8B | ▼18.0% |
| 33 | Itau Asset Management Sao Paulo | Asset-class exposure | $160.0B | $131.5B | ▼17.8% |
| 34 | CVC Capital Partners Luxembourg | Asset-class exposure | $210.0B | $172.8B | ▼17.7% |
| 35 | Cbus Super Melbourne | Asset-class exposure | $60.0B | $49.6B | ▼17.3% |
| 36 | Mubadala Investment Company Abu Dhabi | Asset-class exposure | $330.0B | $273.1B | ▼17.3% |
| 37 | Bank Central Asia Jakarta | Asset-class exposure | $30.0B | $24.8B | ▼17.2% |
| 38 | RBC Global Asset Management Toronto | Asset-class exposure | $430.0B | $356.1B | ▼17.2% |
| 39 | BTG Pactual Asset Management Sao Paulo | Asset-class exposure | $110.0B | $91.2B | ▼17.1% |
| 40 | Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Shanghai | Asset-class exposure | $480.0B | $398.5B | ▼17.0% |
| 41 | Sumitomo Mitsui Trust AM Tokyo | Asset-class exposure | $750.0B | $623.0B | ▼16.9% |
| 42 | China Merchants Bank Shenzhen | Asset-class exposure | $220.0B | $182.9B | ▼16.9% |
| 43 | Investcorp Manama | Asset-class exposure | $50.0B | $41.6B | ▼16.9% |
| 44 | Commonwealth Bank of Australia Sydney | Asset-class exposure | $78.0B | $64.9B | ▼16.8% |
| 45 | Hang Seng Bank Hong Kong | Asset-class exposure | $62.0B | $51.6B | ▼16.8% |
| 46 | Government Pension Investment Fund Tokyo | Asset-class exposure | $1.60T | $1.33T | ▼16.7% |
| 47 | Apollo Global Management New York | Asset-class exposure | $750.0B | $624.9B | ▼16.7% |
| 48 | ADQ Abu Dhabi | Asset-class exposure | $200.0B | $166.7B | ▼16.7% |
| 49 | Public Investment Fund Riyadh | Asset-class exposure | $930.0B | $775.2B | ▼16.6% |
| 50 | Allianz Global Investors Frankfurt | Asset-class exposure | $620.0B | $517.1B | ▼16.6% |
| 51 | Riyad Capital Riyadh | Asset-class exposure | $20.0B | $16.7B | ▼16.5% |
| 52 | HSBC Asia Pacific Hong Kong | Asset-class exposure | $420.0B | $350.5B | ▼16.5% |
| 53 | Brookfield Asset Management Toronto | Asset-class exposure | $1.00T | $835.0B | ▼16.5% |
| 54 | HDFC Bank Mumbai | Asset-class exposure | $60.0B | $50.1B | ▼16.4% |
| 55 | DBS Group Singapore | Asset-class exposure | $128.0B | $107.0B | ▼16.4% |
| 56 | Blackstone New York | Asset-class exposure | $1.15T | $964.1B | ▼16.2% |
| 57 | Bangkok Bank Bangkok | Asset-class exposure | $26.0B | $21.8B | ▼16.1% |
| 58 | Barclays London | Asset-class exposure | $280.0B | $235.2B | ▼16.0% |
| 59 | Bank of China (Hong Kong) Hong Kong | Asset-class exposure | $110.0B | $92.5B | ▼15.9% |
| 60 | OCBC Bank Singapore | Asset-class exposure | $96.0B | $80.7B | ▼15.9% |
| 61 | Qatar Investment Authority Doha | Asset-class exposure | $520.0B | $437.3B | ▼15.9% |
| 62 | Abu Dhabi Investment Authority Abu Dhabi | Asset-class exposure | $990.0B | $835.0B | ▼15.7% |
| 63 | National Australia Bank Melbourne | Asset-class exposure | $62.0B | $52.3B | ▼15.6% |
| 64 | DWS Group Frankfurt | Asset-class exposure | $1.05T | $886.8B | ▼15.5% |
| 65 | Kuwait Investment Authority Kuwait City | Asset-class exposure | $800.0B | $675.9B | ▼15.5% |
| 66 | Bank of Korea Seoul | Asset-class exposure | $420.0B | $355.2B | ▼15.4% |
| 67 | Hong Kong Monetary Authority Hong Kong | Asset-class exposure | $500.0B | $423.4B | ▼15.3% |
| 68 | Schroders London | Asset-class exposure | $990.0B | $838.9B | ▼15.3% |
| 69 | Deutsche Bank Frankfurt | Asset-class exposure | $320.0B | $271.7B | ▼15.1% |
| 70 | Swiss Re Zurich | Asset-class exposure | $130.0B | $110.4B | ▼15.1% |
| 71 | Goldman Sachs Asset Management New York | Asset-class exposure | $2.90T | $2.47T | ▼15.0% |
| 72 | JPMorgan Asset Management New York | Asset-class exposure | $3.60T | $3.07T | ▼14.8% |
| 73 | Reserve Bank of India Mumbai | Asset-class exposure | $680.0B | $580.9B | ▼14.6% |
| 74 | Legal & General Investment Management London | Asset-class exposure | $1.50T | $1.28T | ▼14.4% |
| 75 | Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Tokyo | Asset-class exposure | $640.0B | $547.7B | ▼14.4% |
| 76 | Pictet Asset Management Zurich | Asset-class exposure | $270.0B | $231.4B | ▼14.3% |
| 77 | BlackRock New York | Asset-class exposure | $11.50T | $9.86T | ▼14.3% |
| 78 | CPP Investments Toronto | Asset-class exposure | $480.0B | $411.9B | ▼14.2% |
| 79 | First Abu Dhabi Bank Abu Dhabi | Asset-class exposure | $56.0B | $48.1B | ▼14.1% |
| 80 | Arab Banking Corporation Manama | Asset-class exposure | $12.0B | $10.3B | ▼13.9% |
| 81 | Emirates NBD Dubai | Asset-class exposure | $42.0B | $36.2B | ▼13.8% |
| 82 | UBS Asset Management Zurich | Asset-class exposure | $1.80T | $1.55T | ▼13.8% |
| 83 | Mashreq Bank Dubai | Asset-class exposure | $18.0B | $15.6B | ▼13.4% |
| 84 | HSBC Holdings London | Asset-class exposure | $680.0B | $592.0B | ▼12.9% |
| 85 | Bank of Japan Tokyo | Asset-class exposure | $4.60T | $4.00T | ▼12.9% |
| 86 | KfW Development Bank Frankfurt | Asset-class exposure | $180.0B | $156.8B | ▼12.9% |
| 87 | European Investment Bank Luxembourg | Asset-class exposure | $95.0B | $82.8B | ▼12.8% |
| 88 | Saudi National Bank Riyadh | Asset-class exposure | $64.0B | $55.9B | ▼12.7% |
| 89 | Qatar National Bank Doha | Asset-class exposure | $52.0B | $45.5B | ▼12.6% |
| 90 | National Bank of Kuwait Kuwait City | Asset-class exposure | $24.0B | $21.1B | ▼12.2% |
| 91 | Bank of England London | Asset-class exposure | $900.0B | $807.5B | ▼10.3% |
| 92 | Dragon Capital Ho Chi Minh City | Geographic exposure | $5.0B | $4.6B | ▼7.6% |
| 93 | Employees Provident Fund Kuala Lumpur | Geographic exposure | $260.0B | $241.9B | ▼6.9% |
| 94 | ANZ New Zealand Auckland | Geographic exposure | $22.0B | $20.5B | ▼6.7% |
| 95 | Vietcombank Ho Chi Minh City | Geographic exposure | $14.0B | $13.2B | ▼6.1% |
| 96 | China Construction Bank Shanghai | Geographic exposure | $430.0B | $404.5B | ▼5.9% |
| 97 | BDO Unibank Manila | Geographic exposure | $18.0B | $16.9B | ▼5.9% |
| 98 | Samsung Asset Management Seoul | Geographic exposure | $250.0B | $235.5B | ▼5.8% |
| 99 | Fullgoal Fund Management Shanghai | Geographic exposure | $170.0B | $160.3B | ▼5.7% |
| 100 | Bank Mandiri Jakarta | Geographic exposure | $34.0B | $32.1B | ▼5.7% |
| 101 | United Overseas Bank Singapore | Geographic exposure | $88.0B | $83.1B | ▼5.6% |
| 102 | National Pension Service Seoul | Geographic exposure | $800.0B | $761.6B | ▼4.8% |
| 103 | Halyk Bank Astana | Geographic exposure | $16.0B | $15.5B | ▼3.1% |
| 104 | Man Group London | Geographic exposure | $190.0B | $184.6B | ▼2.8% |
Asset-class impact
percentage change by class
Assumptions
0 inputs
Default type-driven assumptions were used.
Location impacts
GDP · FX · AUM · banking
Manila
GDP -3.8%FX -13.8%AUM -13.4%BNK -15.3%
Toronto
GDP -0.8%FX -3.0%AUM -2.9%BNK -3.3%
Auckland
GDP -2.9%FX -10.5%AUM -10.2%BNK -11.6%
Shanghai
GDP -3.9%FX -14.0%AUM -13.5%BNK -15.5%
Bangkok
GDP -3.6%FX -13.0%AUM -12.6%BNK -14.4%
London
GDP -0.9%FX -3.2%AUM -3.1%BNK -3.6%
Riyadh
GDP -1.1%FX -3.9%AUM -3.8%BNK -4.3%
Kuwait City
GDP -1.0%FX -3.7%AUM -3.6%BNK -4.1%
Zurich
GDP -0.8%FX -2.8%AUM -2.7%BNK -3.1%
Singapore
GDP -2.6%FX -9.3%AUM -9.0%BNK -10.3%
Abu Dhabi
GDP -0.9%FX -3.4%AUM -3.3%BNK -3.8%
Shenzhen
GDP -3.8%FX -13.8%AUM -13.4%BNK -15.3%
Sao Paulo
GDP -1.3%FX -4.6%AUM -4.5%BNK -5.1%
Luxembourg
GDP -0.8%FX -2.8%AUM -2.7%BNK -3.1%
Manama
GDP -1.2%FX -4.3%AUM -4.1%BNK -4.7%
Doha
GDP -1.0%FX -3.5%AUM -3.4%BNK -3.9%
Seoul
GDP -3.0%FX -11.0%AUM -10.6%BNK -12.2%
Mumbai
GDP -3.6%FX -13.1%AUM -12.7%BNK -14.6%
Hong Kong
GDP -3.1%FX -11.3%AUM -11.0%BNK -12.6%
Sydney
GDP -2.7%FX -9.8%AUM -9.5%BNK -10.9%
Kuala Lumpur
GDP -10.5%FX -37.9%AUM -36.8%BNK -42.1%
Astana
GDP -1.3%FX -4.7%AUM -4.6%BNK -5.3%
Melbourne
GDP -2.8%FX -10.0%AUM -9.7%BNK -11.1%
Jakarta
GDP -3.7%FX -13.5%AUM -13.1%BNK -15.0%
Ho Chi Minh City
GDP -4.0%FX -14.3%AUM -13.9%BNK -15.9%
Taipei
GDP -3.7%FX -13.3%AUM -12.9%BNK -14.8%
Frankfurt
GDP -0.8%FX -3.0%AUM -2.9%BNK -3.3%
Tokyo
GDP -2.8%FX -10.0%AUM -9.7%BNK -11.1%
Tashkent
GDP -1.4%FX -5.0%AUM -4.9%BNK -5.6%
New York
GDP -0.8%FX -3.0%AUM -2.9%BNK -3.3%
Dubai
GDP -1.0%FX -3.6%AUM -3.5%BNK -4.0%