Horizon
FII · intelligence
Sanctions · Moderate
Sanctions · Moderate · 33 months · manual
appliedAll scenarios
Simulated result — impacts are derived from the assumptions listed below, not observed outcomes.
AUM impact
$-1.61T
104 institutions
Avg GDP delta
-0.8%
31 locations
Avg FX delta
-2.3%
Most impacted
-5.1%
Uzbekistan Fund for Reconstruction
31 locations · bubble = scale · colour = scenario impact
Institution impacts
ranked by AUM delta
| # | Institution | Driver | Baseline | Scenario | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uzbekistan Fund for Reconstruction Tashkent | Asset-class exposure | $25.0B | $23.7B | ▼5.1% |
| 2 | Uzsanoatqurilishbank Tashkent | Asset-class exposure | $6.0B | $5.7B | ▼4.3% |
| 3 | Samruk-Kazyna Astana | Asset-class exposure | $70.0B | $67.0B | ▼4.2% |
| 4 | Citadel New York | Asset-class exposure | $65.0B | $62.5B | ▼3.9% |
| 5 | Bosera Asset Management Shenzhen | Asset-class exposure | $180.0B | $173.3B | ▼3.7% |
| 6 | BB DTVM Sao Paulo | Asset-class exposure | $300.0B | $288.8B | ▼3.7% |
| 7 | Partners Group Zurich | Asset-class exposure | $150.0B | $144.4B | ▼3.7% |
| 8 | Indonesia Investment Authority Jakarta | Asset-class exposure | $12.0B | $11.6B | ▼3.7% |
| 9 | ADQ Abu Dhabi | Asset-class exposure | $200.0B | $192.6B | ▼3.7% |
| 10 | Investcorp Manama | Asset-class exposure | $50.0B | $48.1B | ▼3.7% |
| 11 | Blackstone New York | Asset-class exposure | $1.15T | $1.11T | ▼3.7% |
| 12 | CVC Capital Partners Luxembourg | Asset-class exposure | $210.0B | $202.3B | ▼3.7% |
| 13 | Apollo Global Management New York | Asset-class exposure | $750.0B | $722.6B | ▼3.7% |
| 14 | Brookfield Asset Management Toronto | Asset-class exposure | $1.00T | $963.5B | ▼3.7% |
| 15 | Riyad Capital Riyadh | Asset-class exposure | $20.0B | $19.3B | ▼3.6% |
| 16 | Mubadala Investment Company Abu Dhabi | Asset-class exposure | $330.0B | $318.3B | ▼3.6% |
| 17 | Khazanah Nasional Kuala Lumpur | Asset-class exposure | $38.0B | $36.6B | ▼3.5% |
| 18 | Itau Asset Management Sao Paulo | Asset-class exposure | $160.0B | $154.3B | ▼3.5% |
| 19 | BTG Pactual Asset Management Sao Paulo | Asset-class exposure | $110.0B | $106.1B | ▼3.5% |
| 20 | BPI Asset Management Manila | Asset-class exposure | $10.0B | $9.7B | ▼3.5% |
| 21 | Public Investment Fund Riyadh | Asset-class exposure | $930.0B | $897.5B | ▼3.5% |
| 22 | ICICI Prudential AMC Mumbai | Asset-class exposure | $110.0B | $106.2B | ▼3.5% |
| 23 | Fisher Funds Auckland | Asset-class exposure | $15.0B | $14.5B | ▼3.5% |
| 24 | Macquarie Asset Management Sydney | Asset-class exposure | $590.0B | $569.6B | ▼3.5% |
| 25 | SBI Funds Management Mumbai | Asset-class exposure | $130.0B | $125.6B | ▼3.4% |
| 26 | Ping An Insurance Shenzhen | Asset-class exposure | $560.0B | $541.0B | ▼3.4% |
| 27 | Allianz Global Investors Frankfurt | Asset-class exposure | $620.0B | $598.9B | ▼3.4% |
| 28 | Daiwa Securities Tokyo | Asset-class exposure | $240.0B | $231.9B | ▼3.4% |
| 29 | CSOP Asset Management Hong Kong | Asset-class exposure | $60.0B | $58.0B | ▼3.4% |
| 30 | Eastspring Investments Singapore | Asset-class exposure | $250.0B | $241.6B | ▼3.4% |
| 31 | Fubon Asset Management Taipei | Asset-class exposure | $40.0B | $38.7B | ▼3.3% |
| 32 | Barclays London | Asset-class exposure | $280.0B | $270.7B | ▼3.3% |
| 33 | Qatar Investment Authority Doha | Asset-class exposure | $520.0B | $502.8B | ▼3.3% |
| 34 | AustralianSuper Sydney | Asset-class exposure | $220.0B | $212.8B | ▼3.3% |
| 35 | Goldman Sachs Asset Management New York | Asset-class exposure | $2.90T | $2.81T | ▼3.3% |
| 36 | Fullerton Fund Management Singapore | Asset-class exposure | $55.0B | $53.2B | ▼3.2% |
| 37 | Cathay Life Insurance Taipei | Asset-class exposure | $240.0B | $232.2B | ▼3.2% |
| 38 | Temasek Holdings Singapore | Asset-class exposure | $290.0B | $280.6B | ▼3.2% |
| 39 | Kuwait Investment Authority Kuwait City | Asset-class exposure | $800.0B | $774.1B | ▼3.2% |
| 40 | Abu Dhabi Investment Authority Abu Dhabi | Asset-class exposure | $990.0B | $958.1B | ▼3.2% |
| 41 | Life Insurance Corporation of India Mumbai | Asset-class exposure | $560.0B | $542.0B | ▼3.2% |
| 42 | Mirae Asset Global Investments Seoul | Asset-class exposure | $200.0B | $193.6B | ▼3.2% |
| 43 | DWS Group Frankfurt | Asset-class exposure | $1.05T | $1.02T | ▼3.2% |
| 44 | RBC Global Asset Management Toronto | Asset-class exposure | $430.0B | $416.3B | ▼3.2% |
| 45 | GIC Private Limited Singapore | Asset-class exposure | $800.0B | $774.7B | ▼3.2% |
| 46 | Nomura Asset Management Tokyo | Asset-class exposure | $560.0B | $542.3B | ▼3.2% |
| 47 | Permodalan Nasional Berhad Kuala Lumpur | Asset-class exposure | $70.0B | $67.8B | ▼3.2% |
| 48 | Arab Banking Corporation Manama | Asset-class exposure | $12.0B | $11.6B | ▼3.2% |
| 49 | Kasikorn Asset Management Bangkok | Asset-class exposure | $45.0B | $43.6B | ▼3.1% |
| 50 | Swiss Re Zurich | Asset-class exposure | $130.0B | $126.0B | ▼3.1% |
| 51 | JPMorgan Asset Management New York | Asset-class exposure | $3.60T | $3.49T | ▼3.1% |
| 52 | Hang Seng Bank Hong Kong | Asset-class exposure | $62.0B | $60.1B | ▼3.1% |
| 53 | Commonwealth Bank of Australia Sydney | Asset-class exposure | $78.0B | $75.6B | ▼3.1% |
| 54 | Schroders London | Asset-class exposure | $990.0B | $959.7B | ▼3.1% |
| 55 | Emirates NBD Dubai | Asset-class exposure | $42.0B | $40.7B | ▼3.1% |
| 56 | Pictet Asset Management Zurich | Asset-class exposure | $270.0B | $261.8B | ▼3.1% |
| 57 | Nippon Life Insurance Tokyo | Asset-class exposure | $700.0B | $678.7B | ▼3.0% |
| 58 | Deutsche Bank Frankfurt | Asset-class exposure | $320.0B | $310.3B | ▼3.0% |
| 59 | First Abu Dhabi Bank Abu Dhabi | Asset-class exposure | $56.0B | $54.3B | ▼3.0% |
| 60 | BlackRock New York | Asset-class exposure | $11.50T | $11.15T | ▼3.0% |
| 61 | Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Shanghai | Asset-class exposure | $480.0B | $465.6B | ▼3.0% |
| 62 | DBS Group Singapore | Asset-class exposure | $128.0B | $124.2B | ▼3.0% |
| 63 | CPP Investments Toronto | Asset-class exposure | $480.0B | $465.7B | ▼3.0% |
| 64 | European Investment Bank Luxembourg | Asset-class exposure | $95.0B | $92.2B | ▼3.0% |
| 65 | Legal & General Investment Management London | Asset-class exposure | $1.50T | $1.46T | ▼3.0% |
| 66 | Sumitomo Mitsui Trust AM Tokyo | Asset-class exposure | $750.0B | $727.8B | ▼3.0% |
| 67 | Maybank Kuala Lumpur | Asset-class exposure | $72.0B | $69.9B | ▼3.0% |
| 68 | Bank Central Asia Jakarta | Asset-class exposure | $30.0B | $29.1B | ▼2.9% |
| 69 | HSBC Holdings London | Asset-class exposure | $680.0B | $660.1B | ▼2.9% |
| 70 | Government Pension Investment Fund Tokyo | Asset-class exposure | $1.60T | $1.55T | ▼2.9% |
| 71 | UBS Asset Management Zurich | Asset-class exposure | $1.80T | $1.75T | ▼2.9% |
| 72 | Cbus Super Melbourne | Asset-class exposure | $60.0B | $58.3B | ▼2.9% |
| 73 | Qatar National Bank Doha | Asset-class exposure | $52.0B | $50.5B | ▼2.9% |
| 74 | Mashreq Bank Dubai | Asset-class exposure | $18.0B | $17.5B | ▼2.9% |
| 75 | CIMB Group Kuala Lumpur | Asset-class exposure | $48.0B | $46.6B | ▼2.8% |
| 76 | HDFC Bank Mumbai | Asset-class exposure | $60.0B | $58.3B | ▼2.8% |
| 77 | China Merchants Bank Shenzhen | Asset-class exposure | $220.0B | $213.8B | ▼2.8% |
| 78 | Saudi National Bank Riyadh | Asset-class exposure | $64.0B | $62.2B | ▼2.8% |
| 79 | KfW Development Bank Frankfurt | Asset-class exposure | $180.0B | $175.0B | ▼2.8% |
| 80 | Bank of China (Hong Kong) Hong Kong | Asset-class exposure | $110.0B | $106.9B | ▼2.8% |
| 81 | National Bank of Kuwait Kuwait City | Asset-class exposure | $24.0B | $23.4B | ▼2.7% |
| 82 | Bangkok Bank Bangkok | Asset-class exposure | $26.0B | $25.3B | ▼2.7% |
| 83 | HSBC Asia Pacific Hong Kong | Asset-class exposure | $420.0B | $408.7B | ▼2.7% |
| 84 | OCBC Bank Singapore | Asset-class exposure | $96.0B | $93.5B | ▼2.7% |
| 85 | National Australia Bank Melbourne | Asset-class exposure | $62.0B | $60.4B | ▼2.6% |
| 86 | Hong Kong Monetary Authority Hong Kong | Asset-class exposure | $500.0B | $487.4B | ▼2.5% |
| 87 | Bank of Korea Seoul | Asset-class exposure | $420.0B | $409.5B | ▼2.5% |
| 88 | Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Tokyo | Asset-class exposure | $640.0B | $624.6B | ▼2.4% |
| 89 | Bank of England London | Asset-class exposure | $900.0B | $878.8B | ▼2.4% |
| 90 | Bank of Japan Tokyo | Asset-class exposure | $4.60T | $4.49T | ▼2.3% |
| 91 | Reserve Bank of India Mumbai | Asset-class exposure | $680.0B | $664.9B | ▼2.2% |
| 92 | Halyk Bank Astana | Geographic exposure | $16.0B | $15.8B | ▼1.1% |
| 93 | Vietcombank Ho Chi Minh City | Geographic exposure | $14.0B | $14.0B | ▼0.2% |
| 94 | China Construction Bank Shanghai | Geographic exposure | $430.0B | $429.0B | ▼0.2% |
| 95 | Dragon Capital Ho Chi Minh City | Geographic exposure | $5.0B | $5.0B | ▼0.2% |
| 96 | BDO Unibank Manila | Geographic exposure | $18.0B | $18.0B | ▼0.2% |
| 97 | Fullgoal Fund Management Shanghai | Geographic exposure | $170.0B | $169.6B | ▼0.2% |
| 98 | Bank Mandiri Jakarta | Geographic exposure | $34.0B | $33.9B | ▼0.2% |
| 99 | Employees Provident Fund Kuala Lumpur | Geographic exposure | $260.0B | $259.4B | ▼0.2% |
| 100 | ANZ New Zealand Auckland | Geographic exposure | $22.0B | $22.0B | ▼0.2% |
| 101 | Man Group London | Geographic exposure | $190.0B | $189.6B | ▼0.2% |
| 102 | Samsung Asset Management Seoul | Geographic exposure | $250.0B | $249.5B | ▼0.2% |
| 103 | National Pension Service Seoul | Geographic exposure | $800.0B | $798.4B | ▼0.2% |
| 104 | United Overseas Bank Singapore | Geographic exposure | $88.0B | $87.8B | ▼0.2% |
Asset-class impact
percentage change by class
Assumptions
8 inputs
asset freeze pct25.00%
banking·model·low
Reserve assets frozen · model_derived
banking pct-14.92%
banking·model·medium
Banking system impact · model_derived
correspondent cut pct35.00%
banking·model·low
Correspondent banking cut · model_derived
liquidity pct-23.22%
banking·model·low
Liquidity impact · model_derived
fx pct-13.27%
fx·model·medium
FX impact · model_derived
gdp pct-4.31%
gdp·model·high
GDP impact · model_derived
credit bps149.00
macro·model·low
Credit spread impact · model_derived
trade pct-36.00%
trade·model·low
Trade impact · model_derived
Location impacts
GDP · FX · AUM · banking
Manila
GDP -0.6%FX -1.8%AUM -0.5%BNK -2.1%
Toronto
GDP -0.4%FX -1.3%AUM -0.4%BNK -1.4%
Auckland
GDP -0.5%FX -1.4%AUM -0.4%BNK -1.6%
Shanghai
GDP -0.6%FX -1.9%AUM -0.6%BNK -2.1%
Bangkok
GDP -0.6%FX -1.7%AUM -0.5%BNK -1.9%
London
GDP -0.4%FX -1.4%AUM -0.4%BNK -1.5%
Riyadh
GDP -0.5%FX -1.7%AUM -0.5%BNK -1.9%
Kuwait City
GDP -0.5%FX -1.6%AUM -0.5%BNK -1.8%
Zurich
GDP -0.4%FX -1.2%AUM -0.3%BNK -1.3%
Singapore
GDP -0.4%FX -1.2%AUM -0.4%BNK -1.4%
Abu Dhabi
GDP -0.5%FX -1.4%AUM -0.4%BNK -1.6%
Shenzhen
GDP -0.6%FX -1.8%AUM -0.5%BNK -2.1%
Sao Paulo
GDP -0.6%FX -2.0%AUM -0.6%BNK -2.2%
Luxembourg
GDP -0.4%FX -1.2%AUM -0.4%BNK -1.3%
Manama
GDP -0.6%FX -1.8%AUM -0.5%BNK -2.0%
Doha
GDP -0.5%FX -1.5%AUM -0.4%BNK -1.7%
Seoul
GDP -0.5%FX -1.5%AUM -0.4%BNK -1.6%
Mumbai
GDP -0.6%FX -1.7%AUM -0.5%BNK -2.0%
Hong Kong
GDP -0.5%FX -1.5%AUM -0.4%BNK -1.7%
Sydney
GDP -0.4%FX -1.3%AUM -0.4%BNK -1.5%
Kuala Lumpur
GDP -0.5%FX -1.6%AUM -0.5%BNK -1.8%
Astana
GDP -2.1%FX -6.4%AUM -1.9%BNK -7.2%
Melbourne
GDP -0.4%FX -1.3%AUM -0.4%BNK -1.5%
Jakarta
GDP -0.6%FX -1.8%AUM -0.5%BNK -2.0%
Ho Chi Minh City
GDP -0.6%FX -1.9%AUM -0.6%BNK -2.1%
Taipei
GDP -0.6%FX -1.8%AUM -0.5%BNK -2.0%
Frankfurt
GDP -0.4%FX -1.3%AUM -0.4%BNK -1.4%
Tokyo
GDP -0.4%FX -1.3%AUM -0.4%BNK -1.5%
Tashkent
GDP -7.0%FX -21.5%AUM -6.4%BNK -24.1%
New York
GDP -0.4%FX -1.3%AUM -0.4%BNK -1.4%
Dubai
GDP -0.5%FX -1.5%AUM -0.5%BNK -1.7%