Horizon
FII · intelligence
Sovereign default · Moderate
Sovereign default · Moderate · 36 months · manual
appliedAll scenarios
Simulated result — impacts are derived from the assumptions listed below, not observed outcomes.
AUM impact
$-7.80T
104 institutions
Avg GDP delta
-2.4%
31 locations
Avg FX delta
-8.8%
Most impacted
-23.7%
Permodalan Nasional Berhad
31 locations · bubble = scale · colour = scenario impact
Institution impacts
ranked by AUM delta
| # | Institution | Driver | Baseline | Scenario | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Permodalan Nasional Berhad Kuala Lumpur | Asset-class exposure | $70.0B | $53.4B | ▼23.7% |
| 2 | Khazanah Nasional Kuala Lumpur | Asset-class exposure | $38.0B | $29.5B | ▼22.4% |
| 3 | Bosera Asset Management Shenzhen | Asset-class exposure | $180.0B | $140.3B | ▼22.0% |
| 4 | CIMB Group Kuala Lumpur | Asset-class exposure | $48.0B | $38.2B | ▼20.5% |
| 5 | Indonesia Investment Authority Jakarta | Asset-class exposure | $12.0B | $9.5B | ▼20.5% |
| 6 | SBI Funds Management Mumbai | Asset-class exposure | $130.0B | $103.4B | ▼20.5% |
| 7 | Maybank Kuala Lumpur | Asset-class exposure | $72.0B | $57.4B | ▼20.3% |
| 8 | Uzbekistan Fund for Reconstruction Tashkent | Asset-class exposure | $25.0B | $20.1B | ▼19.4% |
| 9 | Fisher Funds Auckland | Asset-class exposure | $15.0B | $12.1B | ▼19.4% |
| 10 | Life Insurance Corporation of India Mumbai | Asset-class exposure | $560.0B | $453.1B | ▼19.1% |
| 11 | Kasikorn Asset Management Bangkok | Asset-class exposure | $45.0B | $36.5B | ▼19.0% |
| 12 | Fullerton Fund Management Singapore | Asset-class exposure | $55.0B | $44.6B | ▼18.9% |
| 13 | Ping An Insurance Shenzhen | Asset-class exposure | $560.0B | $455.1B | ▼18.7% |
| 14 | CSOP Asset Management Hong Kong | Asset-class exposure | $60.0B | $48.8B | ▼18.6% |
| 15 | Eastspring Investments Singapore | Asset-class exposure | $250.0B | $203.5B | ▼18.6% |
| 16 | BPI Asset Management Manila | Asset-class exposure | $10.0B | $8.2B | ▼18.5% |
| 17 | BB DTVM Sao Paulo | Asset-class exposure | $300.0B | $245.3B | ▼18.2% |
| 18 | AustralianSuper Sydney | Asset-class exposure | $220.0B | $180.0B | ▼18.2% |
| 19 | Temasek Holdings Singapore | Asset-class exposure | $290.0B | $237.5B | ▼18.1% |
| 20 | Fubon Asset Management Taipei | Asset-class exposure | $40.0B | $32.8B | ▼18.0% |
| 21 | Nippon Life Insurance Tokyo | Asset-class exposure | $700.0B | $574.5B | ▼17.9% |
| 22 | ICICI Prudential AMC Mumbai | Asset-class exposure | $110.0B | $90.3B | ▼17.9% |
| 23 | Citadel New York | Asset-class exposure | $65.0B | $53.5B | ▼17.7% |
| 24 | Partners Group Zurich | Asset-class exposure | $150.0B | $123.6B | ▼17.6% |
| 25 | Uzsanoatqurilishbank Tashkent | Asset-class exposure | $6.0B | $5.0B | ▼17.5% |
| 26 | Cathay Life Insurance Taipei | Asset-class exposure | $240.0B | $198.1B | ▼17.5% |
| 27 | Nomura Asset Management Tokyo | Asset-class exposure | $560.0B | $462.3B | ▼17.5% |
| 28 | Mirae Asset Global Investments Seoul | Asset-class exposure | $200.0B | $165.1B | ▼17.4% |
| 29 | GIC Private Limited Singapore | Asset-class exposure | $800.0B | $660.6B | ▼17.4% |
| 30 | Daiwa Securities Tokyo | Asset-class exposure | $240.0B | $198.5B | ▼17.3% |
| 31 | CVC Capital Partners Luxembourg | Asset-class exposure | $210.0B | $174.0B | ▼17.1% |
| 32 | Itau Asset Management Sao Paulo | Asset-class exposure | $160.0B | $133.0B | ▼16.9% |
| 33 | Samruk-Kazyna Astana | Asset-class exposure | $70.0B | $58.2B | ▼16.9% |
| 34 | Cbus Super Melbourne | Asset-class exposure | $60.0B | $49.9B | ▼16.9% |
| 35 | Macquarie Asset Management Sydney | Asset-class exposure | $590.0B | $491.6B | ▼16.7% |
| 36 | Mubadala Investment Company Abu Dhabi | Asset-class exposure | $330.0B | $275.3B | ▼16.6% |
| 37 | RBC Global Asset Management Toronto | Asset-class exposure | $430.0B | $358.9B | ▼16.5% |
| 38 | Government Pension Investment Fund Tokyo | Asset-class exposure | $1.60T | $1.34T | ▼16.2% |
| 39 | China Merchants Bank Shenzhen | Asset-class exposure | $220.0B | $184.4B | ▼16.2% |
| 40 | Sumitomo Mitsui Trust AM Tokyo | Asset-class exposure | $750.0B | $628.8B | ▼16.2% |
| 41 | Investcorp Manama | Asset-class exposure | $50.0B | $41.9B | ▼16.2% |
| 42 | Bank Central Asia Jakarta | Asset-class exposure | $30.0B | $25.1B | ▼16.2% |
| 43 | Apollo Global Management New York | Asset-class exposure | $750.0B | $629.0B | ▼16.1% |
| 44 | Commonwealth Bank of Australia Sydney | Asset-class exposure | $78.0B | $65.5B | ▼16.1% |
| 45 | Public Investment Fund Riyadh | Asset-class exposure | $930.0B | $780.5B | ▼16.1% |
| 46 | Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Shanghai | Asset-class exposure | $480.0B | $403.5B | ▼15.9% |
| 47 | Allianz Global Investors Frankfurt | Asset-class exposure | $620.0B | $521.8B | ▼15.8% |
| 48 | HDFC Bank Mumbai | Asset-class exposure | $60.0B | $50.5B | ▼15.8% |
| 49 | BTG Pactual Asset Management Sao Paulo | Asset-class exposure | $110.0B | $92.6B | ▼15.8% |
| 50 | ADQ Abu Dhabi | Asset-class exposure | $200.0B | $168.4B | ▼15.8% |
| 51 | Blackstone New York | Asset-class exposure | $1.15T | $969.0B | ▼15.7% |
| 52 | Brookfield Asset Management Toronto | Asset-class exposure | $1.00T | $843.0B | ▼15.7% |
| 53 | Hang Seng Bank Hong Kong | Asset-class exposure | $62.0B | $52.3B | ▼15.7% |
| 54 | Riyad Capital Riyadh | Asset-class exposure | $20.0B | $16.9B | ▼15.6% |
| 55 | HSBC Asia Pacific Hong Kong | Asset-class exposure | $420.0B | $355.1B | ▼15.5% |
| 56 | OCBC Bank Singapore | Asset-class exposure | $96.0B | $81.3B | ▼15.3% |
| 57 | Qatar Investment Authority Doha | Asset-class exposure | $520.0B | $441.1B | ▼15.2% |
| 58 | DBS Group Singapore | Asset-class exposure | $128.0B | $108.6B | ▼15.2% |
| 59 | Bangkok Bank Bangkok | Asset-class exposure | $26.0B | $22.1B | ▼15.1% |
| 60 | Barclays London | Asset-class exposure | $280.0B | $237.9B | ▼15.0% |
| 61 | DWS Group Frankfurt | Asset-class exposure | $1.05T | $892.5B | ▼15.0% |
| 62 | National Australia Bank Melbourne | Asset-class exposure | $62.0B | $52.8B | ▼14.9% |
| 63 | Bank of China (Hong Kong) Hong Kong | Asset-class exposure | $110.0B | $93.7B | ▼14.8% |
| 64 | Abu Dhabi Investment Authority Abu Dhabi | Asset-class exposure | $990.0B | $844.1B | ▼14.7% |
| 65 | Hong Kong Monetary Authority Hong Kong | Asset-class exposure | $500.0B | $427.1B | ▼14.6% |
| 66 | Kuwait Investment Authority Kuwait City | Asset-class exposure | $800.0B | $684.2B | ▼14.5% |
| 67 | Deutsche Bank Frankfurt | Asset-class exposure | $320.0B | $273.7B | ▼14.5% |
| 68 | Bank of Korea Seoul | Asset-class exposure | $420.0B | $359.3B | ▼14.5% |
| 69 | Schroders London | Asset-class exposure | $990.0B | $848.9B | ▼14.3% |
| 70 | JPMorgan Asset Management New York | Asset-class exposure | $3.60T | $3.09T | ▼14.1% |
| 71 | Reserve Bank of India Mumbai | Asset-class exposure | $680.0B | $585.7B | ▼13.9% |
| 72 | Legal & General Investment Management London | Asset-class exposure | $1.50T | $1.29T | ▼13.8% |
| 73 | Swiss Re Zurich | Asset-class exposure | $130.0B | $112.1B | ▼13.7% |
| 74 | Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Tokyo | Asset-class exposure | $640.0B | $552.4B | ▼13.7% |
| 75 | Goldman Sachs Asset Management New York | Asset-class exposure | $2.90T | $2.51T | ▼13.6% |
| 76 | Arab Banking Corporation Manama | Asset-class exposure | $12.0B | $10.4B | ▼13.5% |
| 77 | CPP Investments Toronto | Asset-class exposure | $480.0B | $415.6B | ▼13.4% |
| 78 | Pictet Asset Management Zurich | Asset-class exposure | $270.0B | $233.8B | ▼13.4% |
| 79 | First Abu Dhabi Bank Abu Dhabi | Asset-class exposure | $56.0B | $48.5B | ▼13.4% |
| 80 | Emirates NBD Dubai | Asset-class exposure | $42.0B | $36.4B | ▼13.4% |
| 81 | BlackRock New York | Asset-class exposure | $11.50T | $9.98T | ▼13.2% |
| 82 | KfW Development Bank Frankfurt | Asset-class exposure | $180.0B | $156.8B | ▼12.9% |
| 83 | UBS Asset Management Zurich | Asset-class exposure | $1.80T | $1.57T | ▼12.9% |
| 84 | HSBC Holdings London | Asset-class exposure | $680.0B | $594.2B | ▼12.6% |
| 85 | Bank of Japan Tokyo | Asset-class exposure | $4.60T | $4.03T | ▼12.4% |
| 86 | Mashreq Bank Dubai | Asset-class exposure | $18.0B | $15.8B | ▼12.3% |
| 87 | Saudi National Bank Riyadh | Asset-class exposure | $64.0B | $56.2B | ▼12.2% |
| 88 | Qatar National Bank Doha | Asset-class exposure | $52.0B | $45.7B | ▼12.2% |
| 89 | European Investment Bank Luxembourg | Asset-class exposure | $95.0B | $83.6B | ▼12.0% |
| 90 | National Bank of Kuwait Kuwait City | Asset-class exposure | $24.0B | $21.3B | ▼11.4% |
| 91 | Bank of England London | Asset-class exposure | $900.0B | $813.4B | ▼9.6% |
| 92 | Dragon Capital Ho Chi Minh City | Geographic exposure | $5.0B | $4.6B | ▼7.6% |
| 93 | Employees Provident Fund Kuala Lumpur | Geographic exposure | $260.0B | $241.9B | ▼6.9% |
| 94 | ANZ New Zealand Auckland | Geographic exposure | $22.0B | $20.5B | ▼6.7% |
| 95 | Vietcombank Ho Chi Minh City | Geographic exposure | $14.0B | $13.2B | ▼6.1% |
| 96 | China Construction Bank Shanghai | Geographic exposure | $430.0B | $404.5B | ▼5.9% |
| 97 | BDO Unibank Manila | Geographic exposure | $18.0B | $16.9B | ▼5.9% |
| 98 | Samsung Asset Management Seoul | Geographic exposure | $250.0B | $235.5B | ▼5.8% |
| 99 | Fullgoal Fund Management Shanghai | Geographic exposure | $170.0B | $160.3B | ▼5.7% |
| 100 | Bank Mandiri Jakarta | Geographic exposure | $34.0B | $32.1B | ▼5.7% |
| 101 | United Overseas Bank Singapore | Geographic exposure | $88.0B | $83.1B | ▼5.6% |
| 102 | National Pension Service Seoul | Geographic exposure | $800.0B | $761.6B | ▼4.8% |
| 103 | Halyk Bank Astana | Geographic exposure | $16.0B | $15.5B | ▼3.1% |
| 104 | Man Group London | Geographic exposure | $190.0B | $184.6B | ▼2.8% |
Asset-class impact
percentage change by class
Assumptions
0 inputs
Default type-driven assumptions were used.
Location impacts
GDP · FX · AUM · banking
Manila
GDP -3.8%FX -13.8%AUM -13.4%BNK -15.3%
Toronto
GDP -0.8%FX -3.0%AUM -2.9%BNK -3.3%
Auckland
GDP -2.9%FX -10.5%AUM -10.2%BNK -11.6%
Shanghai
GDP -3.9%FX -14.0%AUM -13.5%BNK -15.5%
Bangkok
GDP -3.6%FX -13.0%AUM -12.6%BNK -14.4%
London
GDP -0.9%FX -3.2%AUM -3.1%BNK -3.6%
Riyadh
GDP -1.1%FX -3.9%AUM -3.8%BNK -4.3%
Kuwait City
GDP -1.0%FX -3.7%AUM -3.6%BNK -4.1%
Zurich
GDP -0.8%FX -2.8%AUM -2.7%BNK -3.1%
Singapore
GDP -2.6%FX -9.3%AUM -9.0%BNK -10.3%
Abu Dhabi
GDP -0.9%FX -3.4%AUM -3.3%BNK -3.8%
Shenzhen
GDP -3.8%FX -13.8%AUM -13.4%BNK -15.3%
Sao Paulo
GDP -1.3%FX -4.6%AUM -4.5%BNK -5.1%
Luxembourg
GDP -0.8%FX -2.8%AUM -2.7%BNK -3.1%
Manama
GDP -1.2%FX -4.3%AUM -4.1%BNK -4.7%
Doha
GDP -1.0%FX -3.5%AUM -3.4%BNK -3.9%
Seoul
GDP -3.0%FX -11.0%AUM -10.6%BNK -12.2%
Mumbai
GDP -3.6%FX -13.1%AUM -12.7%BNK -14.6%
Hong Kong
GDP -3.1%FX -11.3%AUM -11.0%BNK -12.6%
Sydney
GDP -2.7%FX -9.8%AUM -9.5%BNK -10.9%
Kuala Lumpur
GDP -10.5%FX -37.9%AUM -36.8%BNK -42.1%
Astana
GDP -1.3%FX -4.7%AUM -4.6%BNK -5.3%
Melbourne
GDP -2.8%FX -10.0%AUM -9.7%BNK -11.1%
Jakarta
GDP -3.7%FX -13.5%AUM -13.1%BNK -15.0%
Ho Chi Minh City
GDP -4.0%FX -14.3%AUM -13.9%BNK -15.9%
Taipei
GDP -3.7%FX -13.3%AUM -12.9%BNK -14.8%
Frankfurt
GDP -0.8%FX -3.0%AUM -2.9%BNK -3.3%
Tokyo
GDP -2.8%FX -10.0%AUM -9.7%BNK -11.1%
Tashkent
GDP -1.4%FX -5.0%AUM -4.9%BNK -5.6%
New York
GDP -0.8%FX -3.0%AUM -2.9%BNK -3.3%
Dubai
GDP -1.0%FX -3.6%AUM -3.5%BNK -4.0%